Search results for "tilastolliset mallit"
showing 10 items of 26 documents
Calibrating Expert Assessments Using Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models
2020
Expert assessments are routinely used to inform management and other decision making. However, often these assessments contain considerable biases and uncertainties for which reason they should be calibrated if possible. Moreover, coherently combining multiple expert assessments into one estimate poses a long-standing problem in statistics since modeling expert knowledge is often difficult. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for expert calibration in a task of estimating a continuous univariate parameter. The model allows experts' biases to vary as a function of the true value of the parameter and according to the expert's background. We follow the fully Bayesian approach (the s…
Efficient estimation of generalized linear latent variable models.
2019
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVM) are popular tools for modeling multivariate, correlated responses. Such data are often encountered, for instance, in ecological studies, where presence-absences, counts, or biomass of interacting species are collected from a set of sites. Until very recently, the main challenge in fitting GLLVMs has been the lack of computationally efficient estimation methods. For likelihood based estimation, several closed form approximations for the marginal likelihood of GLLVMs have been proposed, but their efficient implementations have been lacking in the literature. To fill this gap, we show in this paper how to obtain computationally convenient estim…
The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management.
2020
Highlights • Knowledge on the value of monitoring can assist decision-making in lake management. • We calculate value of perfect information theoretically. • We estimate value of imperfect information with Monte Carlo type of approach. • Generally, monitoring is profitable to invest in if VOI exceeds the cost. • Additional monitoring is profitable even if the lake is in good condition a priori. Uncertainty in the information obtained through monitoring complicates decision making about aquatic ecosystems management actions. We suggest the value of information (VOI) to assess the profitability of paying for additional monitoring information, when taking into account the costs and benefits of…
Requirement analysis for an artificial intelligence model for the diagnosis of the COVID-19 from chest X-ray data
2021
There are multiple papers published about different AI models for the COVID-19 diagnosis with promising results. Unfortunately according to the reviews many of the papers do not reach the level of sophistication needed for a clinically usable model. In this paper I go through multiple review papers, guidelines, and other relevant material in order to generate more comprehensive requirements for the future papers proposing a AI based diagnosis of the COVID-19 from chest X-ray data (CXR). Main findings are that a clinically usable AI needs to have an extremely good documentation, comprehensive statistical analysis of the possible biases and performance, and an explainability module.
Graphical model inference : Sequential Monte Carlo meets deterministic approximations
2019
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference. Specifically, we suggest an efficient sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for PGMs which can leverage the output from deterministic inference methods. While generally applicable, we show explicitly how this can be done with loopy belief propagati…
On resampling schemes for particle filters with weakly informative observations
2022
We consider particle filters with weakly informative observations (or `potentials') relative to the latent state dynamics. The particular focus of this work is on particle filters to approximate time-discretisations of continuous-time Feynman--Kac path integral models -- a scenario that naturally arises when addressing filtering and smoothing problems in continuous time -- but our findings are indicative about weakly informative settings beyond this context too. We study the performance of different resampling schemes, such as systematic resampling, SSP (Srinivasan sampling process) and stratified resampling, as the time-discretisation becomes finer and also identify their continuous-time l…
Eight Simple Guidelines for Improved Understanding of Transformations and Nonlinear Effects
2021
Jyväskylästä kirjoitettiin: Käyn läpi Extra-Vipusessa ristiriitaisiksi luokitettuja yhteisjulkaisuja. Julkaisu " Eight Simple Guidelines for Improved Understanding of Transformations and Nonlinear Effects" on meillä laitettu A2 ja teillä A1. Meillä varmaan päädytty tuohon A2:een kun tiivistelmässä sanotaan "Building on a systematic review of six leading management journals..". Mutta mitä mieltä olette, kumpi olisi parempi? Transforming variables before analysis or applying a transformation as a part of a generalized linear model are common practices in organizational research. Several methodological articles addressing the topic, either directly or indirectly, have been published in the rec…
Prediction of leukocyte counts during paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia maintenance therapy
2019
Maintenance chemotherapy with oral 6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate remains a cornerstone of modern therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. The dosage and intensity of therapy are based on surrogate markers such as peripheral blood leukocyte and neutrophil counts. Dosage based leukocyte count predictions could provide support for dosage decisions clinicians face trying to find and maintain an appropriate dosage for the individual patient. We present two Bayesian nonlinear state space models for predicting patient leukocyte counts during the maintenance therapy. The models simplify some aspects of previously proposed models but allow for some extra flexibility. Our second model is an ext…
A nonlinear mixed model approach to predict energy expenditure from heart rate.
2021
Abstract Objective. Heart rate (HR) monitoring provides a convenient and inexpensive way to predict energy expenditure (EE) during physical activity. However, there is a lot of variation among individuals in the EE-HR relationship, which should be taken into account in predictions. The objective is to develop a model that allows the prediction of EE based on HR as accurately as possible and allows an improvement of the prediction using calibration measurements from the target individual. Approach. We propose a nonlinear (logistic) mixed model for EE and HR measurements and an approach to calibrate the model for a new person who does not belong to the dataset used to estimate the model. The …
Clustering ball possession duration according to players’ role in football small-sided games
2022
This study aimed to explore which offensive variables best discriminate the ball possession duration according to players specific role (defenders, midfielders, attackers) during a Gk+3vs3+Gk football small-sided games. Fifteen under-15 players (age 13.2±1.0 years, playing experience 4.2±1.0 years) were grouped according to their positions (team of defenders, n = 5; team of midfielders, n = 7; team of attackers, n = 3). On each testing day (n = 3), each team performed one bout of 5-min against each team in a random order, accounting for a total of nine bouts in the following scenarios: i) defenders vs midfielders; ii) defenders vs attackers; iii) midfielders vs attackers. Based on video, a …